作者：陈媛1, 周志杰1, 明志超1, 王杰1, 张亮2
作者单位：1. 火箭军工程大学导弹工程学院，陕西 西安 710025;
2. 战略支援部队航天系统部装备部装备保障队，北京 100094
关键词：大型贮液箱;置信规则库;性能评估;最优维护
摘要：
为解决大型贮液箱存在的先验信息缺失、维修策略制定不合理等问题，该文提出一种基于结构性能的大型贮液箱最优维护时机确定方法。首先，利用维纳过程对贮液箱指标监测数据的未来变化趋势进行预测。其次，基于改进的置信规则库推理方法，构建贮液箱结构性能状态评估模型。然后，基于评估结果，在满足结构稳定性要求前提下，以单位时间内平均维护成本最小为目标，确定最优维护时机。最后，以50000 m3的石油储罐为例，进行实验验证，说明所提方法的有效性。
determination of optimal maintenance time based on the structural performance of large liquid tanks
chen yuan1, zhou zhijie1, ming zhichao1, wang jie1, zhang liang2
1. missile engineering institute, rocket force university of engineering, xi’an 710025, china;
2. equipment support team of equipment department of space system department of strategic support force, beijing 100094, china
abstract: to solve the problems of lack of prior information and unreasonable maintenance time of large liquid tanks (llt), a determination of optimal maintenance time based on the structural performance of llt is proposed. firstly, according to the historical monitoring data, the wiener process is used to predict the trend of the monitoring data in the future. secondly, based on the improved reasoning method of belief rule base, the state assessment model of structural performance for llt is constructed. thirdly, based on the assessment results, on the premise of meeting the requirements of structural stability, the optimal maintenance time is determined with the objective of minimizing the expected maintenance cost per unit time. finally, a 50000 m3 oil tank can be used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
keywords: large liquid tanks;belief rule base;performance assessment;optimal maintenance
2023, 49(2):1-7,14 收稿日期: 2021-06-25;收到修改稿日期: 2021-08-09
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（61833016）；陕西省杰出青年科学基金（2020jc-34）
作者简介: 陈媛(1997-),女,江西吉安市人,硕士研究生,专业方向为置信规则库、装备健康管理
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